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[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

To: "a Propagation Reflector" <propagation@contesting.com>
Subject: [Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
From: "Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>
Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 10:35:43 -0500
List-post: <mailto:propagation@contesting.com>
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 088 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low again today.  Region 745
(N12W56) continues to slowly decay.  No significant activity was
observed on the solar disk or limb.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next two days.  Quiet to unsettled is
expected on 1 April.

III.  Event Probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Mar 079
Predicted   30 Mar-01 Apr  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        29 Mar 097

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar  002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr  005/005-005/005-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

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http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
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