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[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

To: "a Propagation Reflector" <propagation@contesting.com>
Subject: [Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
From: "Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>
Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2005 18:07:24 -0500
List-post: <mailto:propagation@contesting.com>
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 087 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low again today. Region 745
(N12W39), the only sunspot group on the visible disk, is in slow
decay. A CME observed off the southeast limb at around 28/1900Z was
likely backsided. No other significant activity was observed on the
solar disk or limb.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The high speed coronal hole wind
stream continues to subside. Solar wind speed ended the period at
just under 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet with occasional unsettled periods over the next
three days.

III.  Event Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Mar 080
Predicted   29 Mar-31 Mar  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        28 Mar 096

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar  008/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

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