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[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

To: "a Propagation Reflector" <propagation@contesting.com>
Subject: [Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
From: "Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>
Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2005 10:12:58 -0500
List-post: <mailto:propagation@contesting.com>
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 083 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 25 March.  On 26
March, isolated active conditions are expected as a recurrent high
speed stream moves into geoeffective position.  On 27 March,
unsettled to active conditions are expected.

III.  Event Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Mar 087
Predicted   25 Mar-27 Mar  090/090/085
90 Day Mean        24 Mar 098

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  008/010-010/012-010/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/10
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

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