Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 084 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 745 (N12E03) produced a
C1/Sf flare at 24/2344Z. This region is in a slow growth phase with
minor magnetic mixing. No other significant activity was observed on
the solar disk or limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. An isolated C-class flare is possible from Region 745.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with isolated minor storm
periods at high latitudes. The most disturbed geomagnetic conditions
followed short periods of southward IMF Bz to near -10 nT. A high
speed coronal hole stream rotated into a geoeffective position over
the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed began the period at just over
400 km/s, but increased to near 700 km/s by the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to active levels. Minor storm periods
are possible at high latitudes on 26 March. Mostly quiet to
unsettled levels with just isolated active periods are expected on
27 and 28 March as the high speed solar wind stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Mar 082
Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 25 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 010/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 012/020-010/015-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/20
Minor storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 50/35/30
Minor storm 25/15/10
Major-severe storm 10/05/05
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Contesting Propagation eReflector:
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HC-DX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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