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[Propagation] Fw: [Prelimsolar] PRELIMINARY Daily Solar GeophysicalActiv

To: "a Propagation Reflector" <propagation@contesting.com>
Subject: [Propagation] Fw: [Prelimsolar] PRELIMINARY Daily Solar GeophysicalActivity Report For 30 March
From: "Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>
Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 18:05:13 -0500
List-post: <mailto:propagation@contesting.com>
>         /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
>
>           PRELIMINARY DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
>
>                                 30 MARCH, 2005
>
>         /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
>
>                         (Based in-part on SEC Data.)
>                (The final report will be released tommorrow.)
>
>
> PRELIMINARY SOLAR & GEOPHYSICAL INDICES FOR 30 MARCH, 2005
> ----------------------------------------------------------
>
>      DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.
>          Predicted Solar Flux for Next 3 Days: 80, 80, 85.
>                     Average 90-day Solar Flux:  97.
>               Current Middle Latitude A-Index:  10
>                     Current Boulder K-Indices: 2343 211*
>                   Current Planetary K-Indices: 2342 121*
>                Boulder A-Index 3-Day Forecast:   5,   8,  15.
>              Planetary A-Index 3-Day Forecast:   5,   8,  15.
>
>
> SYNOPSIS OF TODAYS ACTIVITY
> ---------------------------
>
>             Solar activity was at very low levels today.  Region
>       745 (N12W68) continues to show signs of decay.  There is a single
>       axx alpha spot remaining visible in white light.  No significant
>       activity was observed on the disk or limbs during the period.  No
>       new regions were numbered today.
>
>            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be at
>       very low levels.
>
>            The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled 
> levels.
>       Active conditions were observed following a sustained southward bz
>       between 30/0600 and 0900Z.  The greater than 2 mev electron flux at
>       geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
>
>            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
>       expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated active to
>       minor storm conditions are possible on 2 april due to the onset of a
>       recurrent high speed coronal hole stream.
>
>            Event probabilities 31 mar-02 apr
>
>                             Class M    01/01/01
>                             Class X    01/01/01
>                             Proton     01/01/01
>                             PCAF       green
>
>            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 31 mar-02 apr
>
>                        A.  Middle Latitudes
>                        Active                15/20/30
>                        Minor storm           01/05/10
>                        Major-severe storm    01/01/05
>
>                        B.  High Latitudes
>                        Active                15/20/30
>                        Minor storm           01/05/10
>                        Major-severe storm    01/01/05
>
>
> **  End of Daily Report  **
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73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

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