:Issued: 2004 Sep 16 1236 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40916
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 Sep 2004, 1216UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 16 Sep 2004 until 18 Sep 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 112 / AP: 018
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 007
COMMENT: The sun stayed relatively quiet over the past 24 hours, with only a few
C-class flares. Most of the flaring activity came from Catania sunspot group 12
(NOAA 0672). This group has continued to decay slowly but remains the dominant
sunspot group. We expect more C-class flares with only a small chance for an
M-flare. The only other sunspot group on disk at the moment is Catania sunspot
group 20 (NOAA 0673) at the east limb. Recent flares from this region were
small. There is still no good view on the size and structure of this group, but
we expect no major flare from there.
Geomagnetic conditions have been mostly quiet with isolated active periods. The
solar wind speed is still high (at 550km/s) and only slowly decreasing, but the
density is low and the IMF has a north-south component near zero, so we expect
quiet conditions for the near future. The >10 MeV fluxes have decreased below
the
event threshold yesterday around noon UT.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 15 Sep 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 096
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 110
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 027
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 016
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Plant City, FL CWOP Weather Station #CW2111 Live:
http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL CWOP Weather Station #CW2111 5 Min:
http://www.kn4lf.com/plantcityflwx.htm
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