:Issued: 2004 Sep 15 1246 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40915
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 Sep 2004, 1152 UTC
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230 UTC, 15 Sep 2004 until 17 Sep 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 113 / AP: 012
COMMENT: Since yesterday's forecast, only C-class flares have occurred. These
originated from Catania sunspot group 12 (NOAA 0672), but also from a new
sunspot group that is appearing at the east limb (Catania 20, no NOAA number
yet). Catania sunspot group 12 (NOAA 0672) seems to have started to decay. The
sunspot area and number have gone down significantly. Still, the group retains a
very high probability for C-flaring activity and there is also still a small
chance for another M-flare. Also from Catania 20 we expect further C-class
flares. As the region is still barely visible, it is difficult to estimate its
activity level.
The solar wind speed at L1 remains at 600 km/s, but the density has decreased
strongly late in the UT day yesterday. The north-south component of the IMF is
near zero, so at the moment geomagnetic conditions are quiet. For the next 24
hours we expect a mixture of quiet and active conditions.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 14 Sep 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 126
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 115
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 039
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 027
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Observations:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Plant City, FL CWOP Weather Station #CW2111:
http://www.kn4lf.com/plantcityflwx.htm
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