As soon as the hurricane season slows down here in Florida I'll resume my
propagation outlooks.
73,
Thomas Giella, KN4LF
Moderator
:Issued: 2004 Sep 14 1253 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40914
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 14 Sep 2004, 1219 UTC
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230 UTC, 14 Sep 2004 until 16 Sep 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 114 / AP: 034
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 031
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 016
COMMENT: Space weather conditions have become more agitated! The arrival
(yesterday at about 19:30) of the shock front due to the CME accompanying the
M4.8 flare on Sep 12 has made the solar wind speed increase from to about
600km/s. However, the IMF has only had brief periods of strong southwards
orientation, so geomagnetic perturbations have been confined to mostly active
conditions (K=4), though some observatories have also reported K=5. We expect
active to minor geomagnetic storm conditions to persist for the next 24 hours.
Catania sunspot group 12 (NOAA 0672) has continued strong growth in sunspot
number and area, but also in magnetic complexity with some new strong magnetic
flux appearing. The group has produced an M1.5 flare this morning (peak time
09:30) and is thought likely to generate more large flares.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 13 Sep 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 088
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 118
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 016
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 010
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
12 0004 0056 0133 N04E42 M4.8 2N 240 IV/2,II/3,III/312 0672 full halo CME with
median speed about 950km/s
12 0136 0139 0141 S14W61 M3.2 SN II/3 06 0667 very short duration event
14 0847 0930 1004 N03E15 M1.5 12 0672
END
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 31 44N 82 09 51 98W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Observations:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Plant City, FL CWOP Weather Station #CW2111:
http://www.kn4lf.com/plantcityflwx.htm
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