Issued: 2004 Sep 10 1230 UTC
DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
SIDC URSIGRAM 40910
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 10 Sep 2004, 1222 UTC
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230 UTC, 10 Sep 2004 until 12 Sep 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 137 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 139 / AP: 009
COMMENT: Background X-ray radiation has still increased, mainly due to the
appearance of sunspot group 12 (NOAA 0672) which has produced yesterday,
September 9 a long duration C3.2 flare peaking at 06:01 UTC. CACTus, the
CME-detection software of the SIDC, detected a CME coming out of the C2
occulting disk at 06:30 UTC ejected in the east-direction. The CME had an
angular
width of 126°. The CME will not be geoeffective. Sunspot group 12 had a magnetic
beta configuration. The full magnetic strength will be more clear as the group
rotates more to the centre of the solar disk getting in the line of sight of
SOHO/MDI. Solar wind speed is low, the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field only slightly negative resulting in quiet
geomagnetic conditions.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 9 Sep 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 087
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 131
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 008
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 005
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 31 44N 82 09 51 98W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Observations:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Plant City, FL APRS/CWOP Weather Station #CW2111:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLPLANT4
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