Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of
numerous C-class flares, predominantly from Region 656 (S13E03). The
largest event of the day was a C7/Sf from 656 at 1141 UTC. Region
656 continues to grow and is nearly 1000 millionths in area. The
group continues to have a magnetic delta classification. A slow,
faint CME was seen in LASCO off the south limb yesterday, beginning
at about 10/1854 UTC in C2 imagery. The CME was associated with
surge activity and a subsequent EIT wave that was observed just
north of 656 and east of central meridian.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-flares should continue and there is a good chance for
an isolated M-class event during the next three days. There is also
a slight chance for a major flare event from 656. Background levels
are expected to increase tomorrow with the return of old Region 652
(N07, Carrington = 347).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind
data show the continuing influence of a high-speed coronal hole wind
stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods for the next two days (12-13 August). Conditions are
expected to be unsettled to active on the 3rd day (14 August) with
the arrival of weak transient flow from yesterday's CME.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Aug 131
Predicted 12 Aug-14 Aug 140/145/150
90 Day Mean 11 Aug 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug 012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug 012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 010/010-010/010-015/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/35
Minor storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/35/40
Minor storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 31 44N 82 09 51 98W
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer # HIL-249
SWFWMD Rainfall Network Observer #574 Thackery
CWOP Weather Station #CW2111
PODXS 070 PSK31 Club Member #349
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
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