Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 663 (N04W73)
produced a C2.4 at 30/0311 UTC and a C1.0 flare at 1818 UTC. A Type
II radio sweep was observed with the C2.4 flare at 0325 UTC. Region
663 has grown slightly as it approaches the west limb and was
observed at 140 millionths in white light. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 663 may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
Geophysical activity has been at quiet to active levels. A minor
shock was observed at approximately 29/1900 UTC, most likely from a
CME associated with an erupting prominence observed on 27 Aug. Bz
at ACE remained below -10 nT for most of the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days. Active
conditions are possible early on day one (31 Aug) due to residual
effects from the CME shock observed 30 Aug.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Aug 090
Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 090/100/110
90 Day Mean 30 Aug 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 010/012-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/20
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/25/25
Minor storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 31 44N 82 09 51 98W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
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