Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of
occasional C-class flares from Region 656 (S12E18). Although the
region is still growing the rate of growth has decreased
significantly and the rate of flare activity has also decreased. The
region continues to have a delta magnetic class but shearing in the
region appears to have decreased slightly. New Region 659 (N18E59)
was assigned today and is a small, stable H-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class flare
from Region 656. There may be an increase in background and activity
levels on 12 August with the return of old Region 652 (N08, L=348)
which produced numerous M-class events on its previous disk transit.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with a minor
storm interval at some locations from 1500-1800 UTC. Solar wind
observations show an increase of velocity and temperature, and a
decrease of density, consistent with the onset of a high-speed
coronal hole solar wind stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with occasional active periods for
the next three days (11-13 August).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 121
Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 125/130/135
90 Day Mean 10 Aug 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 012/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 010/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 31 44N 82 09 51 98W
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer # HIL-249
SWFWMD Rainfall Network Observer #574 Thackery
CWOP Weather Station #CW2111
PODXS 070 PSK31 Club Member #349
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
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