:Issued: 2004 Aug 11 1243 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40811
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 11 Aug 2004, 1215UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 11 Aug 2004 until 13 Aug 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 137 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 145 / AP: 010
COMMENT: Active region Catania#90 has grown further but still produced only C
flares, although the X ray background increased again over the last few hours.
There is a fair probability for an M flare from this region, in addition to
multiple C flares. EIT images indicate that a new active region is about to
appear at the East limb.
After reaching a peak at 600km/s around Aug. 11 00:00UT, the solar wind speed
now shows a downward trend. As the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field still displays small southward fluctuations, the geomagnetic field is
expected to remain unsettled, with occasional active periods, for at least one
more day. Barring the arrival of a CME, quieter conditions are expected in the
following days.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 10 Aug 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 091
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 121
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 030
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 021
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 31 44N 82 09 51 98W
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer # HIL-249
SWFWMD Rainfall Network Observer #574 Thackery
CWOP Weather Station #CW2111
PODXS 070 PSK31 Club Member #349
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
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