Issued: 2004 Sep 04 1300 UTC
Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
SIDC URSIGRAM 40904
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 04 Sep 2004, 1233 UTC
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230 UTC, 04 Sep 2004 until 06 Sep 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 100 / AP: 003
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 103 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 106 / AP: 004
COMMENT: Solar X-ray output remains very low, with an X-ray background below
B2.0 and a few small flares not even reaching up to the B3.0 level. Catania
sunspot group 06 (NOAA 0667) remains quiet and is unlikely to produce large
flares. Catania sunspot group 05 (NOAA 0668) has grown further and now has a
beta magnetic classification. There is only a small chance for a C-class flare
from this group.
A full halo CME was detected in LASCO images. The event was first visible in C2
images at 10:30 UT on Sep 03. It was detected by CACTus with a median speed of
about 600 km/s and a maximum speed of nearly 900km/s. There was no activity
visible on the solar disk that could account for this CME, so it was determined
back sided. The solar wind speed has decreased to less than 350km/s. No
perturbations are
expected in the immediate future, so geomagnetic conditions will remain quiet.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 3 Sep 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 033
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 097
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 005
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 003
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 31 44N 82 09 51 98W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
Plant City, FL APRS/CWOP Weather Station #CW2111:
http://www.met.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base.cgi?stn=C2111
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLPLANT4
http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/wx.cgi?call=CW2111
http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/wxpage.cgi?CW2111
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