[SECC] Fwd: [contest_prez] Nomination Data Analysis

[jpryor@arches.uga.edu (Jay Pryor)]

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Some of you will be interested in this.  Five of the SECC nominations for 
WRTC-2002 were selected, which is more than the majority of clubs.  N0AX 
asked club presidents to let him know by call area where each club's 
nominees were located.  No call signs were used.

73,

Jay, K4OGG


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>Date: Thu, 19 Jul 2001 17:54:44 +0100
>Reply-To: contest_prez@yahoogroups.com
>Subject: [contest_prez] Nomination Data Analysis
>
>Hi All,
>
>Here is the promised breakdown of the nominations by district.  I received 
>data from all but one club, so this is "statistically significant".
>
>District - call area
>Selected - # of Team Captains from a call area
>Sel Pct - percentage of total captains from a call area
>Resumes - # of resumes from a call area posted on contesting.com
>Res Pct - percentage of posted resumes from a call area
>Nom'tns - total number of nominations submitted from a call area
>Nom Pct - percentage of the submitted nominations from a call area
>
>District Selected Sel Pct   Resumes Res Pct Nom'tns Nom Pct
>
>     1         4     40%        8      12%     20     17%
>     2         0      0%        7      10%      6      5%
>     3         0      0%        5       7%      3      3%
>     4         1     10%       10      15%     18     15%
>     5         1     10%        6       9%     12     10%
>     6         3     30%       11      16%     23     19%
>     7         0      0%        4       6%      5      4%
>     8         0     0%        4       6%      3      3%
>     9         0     0%        6       9%     10      8%
>     10        1     10%        5       7%     10      8%
>KH6/KL7       0      0%        2       3%     10      8%
>
>   Total      10    100%       68     100%    120    100%
>
>(Total of nominations is 120 because one club did not send me their data.)
>
>Average Club Success - 4.33
>
>Success Distribution
>
>Selected - # of nominees selected as Team Captain from a particular club's 
>nominations
>Clubs - # of clubs with that # of selected nominees
>
>Selected    Clubs
>     2        1
>     3        4
>     4        3
>     5        1
>     6        0
>     7        3
>
>(Total of clubs is 12 because one club did not send me their data.)
>
>What conclusions can be reached?
>
>1) Yes, the W1's are somewhat over-represented based on the resumes 
>submitted, but they were also one of the top two nominations-received call 
>areas.  i.e. - We nominated them, therefore they were 
>selected.  Obviously, the W1 nominations were concentrated on a few 
>individuals (some of whom did not even submit resumes) to have four 
>Captains.  This could be due to:
>     a) having several clubs in the NE region
>     b) well-known calls in the list of W1 resumes
>
>2) The W6's are also a little over-represented, but had the most resumes 
>and the most nominations, so this should hardly be surprising either.
>
>3) The W4's are under-represented based on both resumes and nominations, 
>so I suspect that the vote was "split" sufficiently to reduce the chances 
>of any particular W4 candidate.  The W1 vote was probably concentrated on 
>the successful nominees.
>
>4) Due to the limited number of selections available (10) there is a 
>"threshold" effect at work that effectively cut off the chances of being 
>selected at 8-10% of either resumes or nominations received.  This also 
>tends to "round-up" the number of selections.  Both effects are common and 
>not unexpected.
>
>5) Just looking at resumes, the 4th and 2nd call-areas were 
>under-represented by one captainship.  You can make a good case for the 
>9th call-area being under-represented by one, as well.  But resumes do not 
>constitute a nomination.  Looking at the nominations received, the 
>distribution is certainly within reasonable agreement with the resultant 
>selections.  The W1's are maybe 1 captaincy over-represented and the 9's 
>one captaincy short.
>
>6) Three of the clubs did VERY well in nominating success. I have no idea 
>what process they used to select.  They were distributed across the 
>country and not concentrated in any one region.
>
>The bottom line is that the data shows that the outcome of the Team 
>Captain selection process did follow the nomination distribution 
>reasonably well.  The fact that there were only a limited number of 
>resumes posted and that the process for individual clubs varied quite 
>widely contributed to the over- and under-representation of any particular 
>call area.
>
>Just to remind everyone - this was NOT a Steering Committee evaluation of 
>the WRTC-2002 selection process, just me and my spreadsheet and an 
>over-active curiousity.
>
>73, Ward N0AX
>
>To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
>contest_prez-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
>
>
>
>Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the 
><http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>Yahoo! Terms of Service.


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<html>
Some of you will be interested in this.&nbsp; Five of the SECC
nominations for WRTC-2002 were selected, which is more than the majority
of clubs.&nbsp; N0AX asked club presidents to let him know by call area
where each club's nominees were located.&nbsp; No call signs were
used.&nbsp; <br>
<br>
73,<br>
<br>
Jay, K4OGG<br>
<br>
<br>
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Date: Thu, 19 Jul 2001 17:54:44 +0100<br>
Reply-To: contest_prez@yahoogroups.com<br>
Subject: [contest_prez] Nomination Data Analysis<br>
<br>
<font size=2>Hi All,</font><br>
&nbsp;<br>
<font size=2>Here is the promised breakdown of the nominations by
district.&nbsp; I received data from all but one club, so this is
&quot;statistically significant&quot;.</font><br>
&nbsp;<br>
<font size=2>District - call area</font><br>
<font size=2>Selected - # of Team Captains from a call area</font><br>
<font size=2>Sel Pct - percentage of total captains from a call
area</font><br>
<font size=2>Resumes - # of resumes from a call area posted on
contesting.com</font><br>
<font size=2>Res Pct - percentage of posted resumes from a call
area</font><br>
<font size=2>Nom'tns - total number of nominations submitted from a call
area</font><br>
<font size=2>Nom Pct - percentage of the submitted nominations from a
call area<br>
<br>
District Selected Sel Pct&nbsp;&nbsp; Resumes Res Pct Nom'tns Nom
Pct</font><br>
<font 
size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
<br>
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
4&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 40%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 12%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
20&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 17% <br>
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
0%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 10%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
6&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 5% <br>
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
0%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
5&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 7%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
3%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br>
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 4&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 10%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
10&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 15%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 15%&nbsp;&nbsp; <br>
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 5&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 10%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
6&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 9%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
12&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 10% <br>
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 6&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 30%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
11&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 16%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
23&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 19% <br>
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
0%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
4&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 6%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
5&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 4%&nbsp;&nbsp; <br>
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 0%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
4&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 6%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
3%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br>
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 9&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 0%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
6&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 9%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
10&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 8%&nbsp;&nbsp; <br>
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 10&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 10%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
5&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 7%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
10&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 8%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br>
KH6/KL7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
0%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 3%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
10&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 8% </font><br>
<font size=2><br>
&nbsp; Total&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 10&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
100%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 68&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
100%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 120&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 100% </font><br>
&nbsp;<br>
<font size=2>(Total of nominations is 120 because one club did not send
me their data.)</font><br>
<font size=2><br>
Average Club Success - 4.33</font><br>
&nbsp;<br>
<font size=2>Success Distribution</font><br>
&nbsp;<br>
<font size=2>Selected - # of nominees selected as Team Captain from a
particular club's nominations</font><br>
<font size=2>Clubs - # of clubs with that # of selected
nominees</font><br>
&nbsp;<br>
<font size=2>Selected&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Clubs</font><br>
<font size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 1</font><br>
<font size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 4</font><br>
<font size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
4&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 3</font><br>
<font size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
5&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 1</font><br>
<font size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
6&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 0</font><br>
<font size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 3</font><br>
&nbsp;<br>
<font size=2>(Total of clubs is 12 because one club did not send me their
data.)</font><br>
&nbsp;<br>
<font size=2>What conclusions can be reached?</font><br>
&nbsp;<br>
<font size=2>1) Yes, the W1's are somewhat over-represented based on the
resumes submitted, but they were also one of the top two
nominations-received call areas.&nbsp; i.e. - We nominated them,
therefore they were selected.&nbsp; Obviously, the W1 nominations were
concentrated on a few individuals (some of whom did not even submit
resumes) to have four Captains.&nbsp; This could be due to:<br>
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; a) having several clubs in the NE region<br>
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; b) well-known calls in the list of W1 resumes<br>
</font>&nbsp;<br>
<font size=2>2) The W6's are also a little over-represented, but had the
most resumes and the most nominations, so this should hardly be
surprising either.</font><br>
&nbsp;<br>
<font size=2>3) The W4's are under-represented based on both resumes and
nominations, so I suspect that the vote was &quot;split&quot;
sufficiently to reduce the chances of any particular W4 candidate.&nbsp;
The W1 vote was probably concentrated on the successful
nominees.</font><br>
&nbsp;<br>
<font size=2>4) Due to the limited number of selections available (10)
there is a &quot;threshold&quot; effect at work that effectively cut off
the chances of being selected at 8-10% of either resumes or nominations
received.&nbsp; This also tends to &quot;round-up&quot; the number of
selections.&nbsp; Both effects are common and not 
unexpected.</font><br>
&nbsp;<br>
<font size=2>5) Just looking at resumes, the 4th and 2nd call-areas were
under-represented by one captainship.&nbsp; You can make a good case for
the 9th call-area being under-represented by one, as well.&nbsp; But
resumes do not constitute a nomination.&nbsp; Looking at the nominations
received, the distribution is certainly within reasonable agreement with
the resultant selections.&nbsp; The W1's are maybe 1 captaincy
over-represented and the 9's one captaincy short.</font><br>
&nbsp;<br>
<font size=2>6) Three of the clubs did VERY well in nominating success. I
have no idea what process they used to select.&nbsp; They were
distributed across the country and not concentrated in any one
region.</font><br>
&nbsp;<br>
<font size=2>The bottom line is that the data shows that the outcome of
the Team Captain selection process did follow the nomination distribution
<u>reasonably</u> well.&nbsp; The fact that there were only a limited
number of resumes posted and that the process for individual clubs varied
quite widely contributed to the over- and under-representation of any
particular call area.</font><br>
&nbsp;<br>
<font size=2>Just to remind everyone - this was NOT a Steering Committee
evaluation of the WRTC-2002 selection process, just me and my spreadsheet
and an over-active curiousity.</font><br>
&nbsp;<br>
<font size=2>73, Ward N0AX</font><br>
<br>
<tt>To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:<br>
contest_prez-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com<br>
<br>
</tt><br>
<br>
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