[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Oct 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Oct 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels with only modest C level enhancements in the GOES x-ray background. There was a an impulsive 10cm burst (120 sfu) at 19/0503 UTC. This event was not associated with any notable flare activity. A new spot group emerged near S12E25. Additional observations are needed before assigning a region number. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance C-class flares on 19-29 Oct.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 19-21 Oct due to high speed stream influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected waning influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field was around 5 nT. Bz was variable. Solar wind speeds steadily declined from ~525 km/s to ~450 km/s over the reporting period. Phi angle was oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to trend towards ambient levels on 19 Oct. Another enhancement is likely on 20-21 Oct due to positive polarity CH HSS becoming geoeffective.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to be at quiet conditions on 19 Oct. 20 Oct will likely see conditions increase to active levels as another CH HSS influences the near-Earth space environment. Quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast for 21 Oct as CH HSS influences begin to wane.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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