[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Oct 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Oct 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels with only C-class flares observed. Region 3122 (N26W84, Axx/alpha) produced the largest flare of the period, a C5/1F at 20/0326 UTC. Region 3126 (S10E10, Dsi/beta) also produced a few C flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance C-class flares on 20-22 Oct.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 20-22 Oct due to high speed stream influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected nominal conditions. Total magnetic field was around 5 nT. Bz was variable. Solar wind speeds steadily declined from ~450 km/s to ~400 km/s over the reporting period. Phi angle was oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain ambient for the first half of 20 Oct. Another enhancement is likely starting late on 20-21 Oct due to possible positive polarity CH HSS becoming geoeffective.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: 20 Oct will likely see conditions increase late in the day, as another CH HSS influences the near-Earth space environment. Quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast for 20-21 Oct. Quiet conditions are forecast for 22 Oct, as CH HSS influences wane.

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