[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Oct 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Oct 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3124 (S36W62, Dao/beta) produced the largest flare of the period, a long-duration C3.3 at 17/1714 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance C-class flares on 18-20 Oct.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 18-20 Oct due to high speed stream influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field was around 5 nT. Bz was mostly oriented northward. Solar wind speeds steadily declined from ~575 km/s to ~525 km/s over the reporting period. Phi angle was oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to trend towards ambient levels over 18 Oct. A return to nominal levels is likely on 19 Oct. Another enhancement is likely on 20 Oct due to positive polarity CH HSS becoming geoeffective.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reached unsettled levels on 18 Oct under CH HSS influence. Mostly quiet conditions are likely on 19 Oct. 20 Oct will likely see conditions increase to active levels as another CH HSS influences the near-Earth space environment.

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