[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Nov 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Nov 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2898 (S24W15, Cao/beta) exhibited area and penumbra decay in the trailer portion of the region. Region 2899 (S21W85, Bxo/beta) was unchanged. Region 2900 (S28W30, Dsi/beta) indicated overall area and spot growth, particularly in the trailer portion of the region. All three regions produced low-level B-class activity during the period. New Region 2901 (N17E70, Hsx/alpha) quietly rotated onto the disk early in the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available data.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for isolated C-class flare activity, over 28-30 Nov.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 793 pfu observed at 27/1235 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate over 28-30 Nov and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels until near 27/2153 UTC when the likely arrival of the 24 Nov CME caused enhancements in the field. Solar wind speeds rapidly increased from about 300 km/s to near 385 km/s, and further increased to about 415 km/s later in the period. Total field increased from 6 nT to 17 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward deflection of -14 nT at about 28/0130 UTC. A notable increase in density was also observed. The phi angle was in a predominately positive solar sector through 27/1840 UTC when a switch to a negative orientation occurred. Phi remained mostly negative through the remainder of the period.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced for the remainder of 28 Nov due the CME passage coupled with negative polarity CH HSS influence. CH HSS and CME effects are expected to subside over 29 Nov with near-background conditions expected to prevail over 30 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Quiet to active conditions are expected for the remainder of 28 Nov due to the anticipated CME influences and the expected arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS and CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 29 Nov as CH HSS and CME influences wane and mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail over 30 Nov.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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