[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Nov 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Nov 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Regions 2898 (S24W01, Dao/beta), 2899 (S21W70, Bxo/beta) and 2900 (S27W18, Dao/beta) indicated little change over the period. All three regions produced low-level B-class flare activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low over 27-29 Nov.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,340 pfu observed at 26/1605 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 27 Nov and normal to moderate levels on 28-29 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected nominal conditions. Solar wind speeds meandered between about 310-350 km/s, total field strength ranged between 2-6 nT and the Bz component varied between +5 to -3 nT. The phi angle was variable throughout the period.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to be enhanced over 27-29 Nov due to a combination of negative polarity CH HSS influences and the anticipated arrival of a CME from 24 Nov. The influence of these two features is expected to culminate late 27/early 28 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Unsettled and active conditions are expected on 27 Nov due to the onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences followed by the anticipated arrival of a CME. Unsettled and active conditions are expected again on 28 Nov as CH HSS and CME effects persist. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 29 Nov.

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