[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Nov 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Nov 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2898 (S24E10, Dai/beta) produced low-level B-class flare activity this period. New spot development was observed in both the leader and trailer portion along with some elongation along the regions E/W axis. The regions area more than doubled over the past 24 hours. New Regions 2899 (S21W56, Cao/beta) and 2900 (S28W06, Cao/beta) both emerged in the SW quadrant this period.

A possible filament eruption in the NE quadrant was observed in SDO/AIA 193 and 304 imagery at about 26/0015 UTC. A faint CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery off the NE limb along with a very faint, partial-halo CME to the south with an approximate PA angle of 090-280 degrees. Analysis is ongoing for any potential Earth-directed component. At this time, no new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available data. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class activity, over 26-28 Nov.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 26-27 Nov, with normal to moderate levels expected on 28 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced early this period due to weak CH HSS influence. Solar wind speeds hovered at around 450 km/s through about 25/1500 UTC before gradually declining to end the period near 350 km/s. Total field strength values ranged between 1-4 nT and Bz varied between +/-3 nT. The phi angle was in a mostly negative sector orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at near-background levels over 26 Nov. The solar wind environment is expected to become enhanced on 27 Nov due to the onset of negative polarity CH HSS influence and the anticipated arrival of the 24 Nov CME (filament eruption). Elevated solar wind parameters are expected to persist over 28 Nov due to persistent CH HSS and CME effects.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet under a mostly nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 26 Nov. The onset of negative polarity CH HSS influence and the anticipated arrival of a CME (from 24 Nov filament eruption) on 27 Nov is expected to cause unsettled to active field conditions on 27-28 Nov.

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