[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Nov 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Nov 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Regions 2896 (S17, L=333) and 2897 (N15, L=319) decayed to plage. Slight growth was observed in Region 2898 (S24E25, Dro/beta).

An approximate 10 degree filament eruption, centered near S36E33, was observed in GONG H-alpha imagery beginning at 24/0958 UTC. An associated CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 24/1412 UTC. WSA/ENLIL modelling showed an arrival time late on 27 Nov.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 25-27 Nov with a slight chance for C-class flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels again with a peak flux of 1,610 pfu observed at 24/1605 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 25-26 Nov. A redistribution of electrons and decrease to a peak of moderate levels is forecast for 27 Nov with the onset of CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced with solar wind speeds mostly between 435-475 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-5 nT while the Bz component was between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to be at near-background conditions on 25-26 Nov. Onset of the next -CH is expected early on 27 Nov with modest increases in wind speeds and increased Bt anticipated. A further enhancement is expected by late on 27 Nov with the arrival of the 24 Nov CME.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 25-26 Nov. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected early on 27 Nov with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS. By late on 27 Nov, the 24 Nov CME is expected to enhance activity to unsettled to active levels with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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