[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2021 Nov 29 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2021 Nov 29 0301 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 - 28 November 2021

Solar activity was at very low levels with only B-class activity observed. The largest flare was a B8.4 at 28/0859 UTC from Region 2900 (S26, L=256, class/area, Dso/160 on 28 Nov). This was also the most active region on the disk during the highlight period. Other notable activity included an approximate 10 degree filament eruption centered near S36E33 and observed in GONG H-alpha imagery beginning at 24/0958 UTC. The associated CME was observed in LASCO coronagraph imagery beginning at 24/1412 UTC. WSA/Enlil modelling indicated an Earth-directed component with an arrival time of late on 27 Nov. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the highlight period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 23, 24 and 26 Nov due to CH HSS influences. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 22, 25, 27 and 28 Nov.

Geomagnetic field activity reached unsettled levels on 22-23 Nov due to influences from a negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled levels were also reached on 27-28 Nov due to the arrival of the aforementioned CME from 24 Nov. A relatively weak shock was observed near 27/2153 UTC causing enhancements in solar wind parameters. Total field reached a maximum of 17 nT during the event at 28/0057 UTC, while the Bz component reached a maximum southward deviation of -14 nT at the same time. Solar wind speeds reached a maximum near 400 km/s. Quiet levels were observed on 24-26 Nov with a nominal solar wind.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 November - 25 December 2021

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 10-12 Dec and 20-23 Dec due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels early on 29 Nov due to lingering influences from the 24 Nov CME. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 03-05 Dec, 12-14 Dec, and 17-18 Dec due to influences from recurrent CH HSS activity. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the remainder of the period.

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