[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Nov 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Nov 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2896 (S17W41, Hrx/alpha) was quiet and stable. Several small spots emerged in the vicinity of Region 2897 (N15W28, Hrx/alpha). Some small spot emergence was also observed in the SE quadrant near S23E55. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low over 23-25 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 23-25 Nov and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to diminish over the period as CH HSS effects wane. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 585 km/s to near 510 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-5 nT while the Bz component was between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced under continued, but weakening negative polarity CH HSS influence for the remainder of 23 Nov. Near-background conditions are likely on 24 Nov and a nominal solar wind regime is expected to prevail over 25 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled due to persistent CH HSS activity.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 23 Nov due to diminishing CH HSS influence. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 24-25 Nov as CH HSS effects diminish.

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