[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Nov 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Nov 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Both Regions 2896 (S18W28, Hsx/alpha) and 2897 (N15W17, Hsx/alpha) were stable and quiet throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low over 22-24 Nov.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 22-24 Nov and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were enhanced this period under continued negative polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased through the period from near 700 km/s to about 550 km/s. Total field reached a peak of 7 nT early in the period and the Bz component briefly reached -6 nT at times throughout the day. Phi was in a predominately negative orientation.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced under continued, but weakening negative polarity CH HSS influence for the remainder of 22 Nov. Near-background conditions are likely on 23 Nov and a nominal solar wind regime is expected to prevail over 24 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet and unsettled this period due to negative polarity CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 22 Nov due to diminishing CH HSS influence. Mostly quiet levels, with an isolated unsettled interval, is expected to prevail over 23 Nov with quiet levels expected on 24 Nov as CH HSS effects diminish.

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