[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Nov 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Nov 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with two sunspot groups present on the visible disk. Regions 2896 (S18E25, Hsx/alpha) and 2897 (N16E40, Hsx/alpha) were stable and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares on 18-20 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to be moderate to high 18-20 Nov due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind conditions were indicative of a waning negative polarity CH HSS regime. Total IMF varied primarily from 3 to 5 nT and the Bz component alternated orientations without any pronounced and prolonged southward deviations. Solar wind speed averaged 600 km/s early in the period, but decreased to ~525 km/s. The phi angle was negative.

Forecast: CH HSS influences are expected to continue waning on 18 Nov as the CH rotates away from a fully geoeffective position. A return to a more ambient, background-like state is anticipated for 19 Nov into most of 20 Nov. However, CIR approach ahead of an isolated negative polarity CH HSS is likely to caused disturbances and enhancements in the IMF later on 20 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled in response to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions, with a chance for unsettled conditions, is likely the remainder of 18 Nov as CH HSS influences continue, but weaken. Primarily quiet conditions are expected 19 Nov. Quiet conditions are anticipated for most of 20 Nov, with unsettled periods possible later in the day due to CIR influences.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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