[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Nov 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Nov 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and three sunspot groups were present on the visible disk. Regions 2894 (S28W83, Hsx/alpha), 2896 (S18E38, Hsx/alpha), and 2897 (N16E54, Hsx/alpha) were all stable and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares on 17-19 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to be normal to moderate on 17 Nov, then increase to moderate to high levels on 18-19 Nov due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind conditions were indicative of a negative polarity CH HSS regime. Total IMF varied primarily from 3 to 7 nT and the Bz component alternated orientations without any prolonged southward deviations. Solar wind speed averaged 600 km/s with a peak of about 658 km/s. The phi angle was negative.

Forecast: CH HSS influences are expected to continue on 17 Nov and begin waning 18 Nov as the CH begins to rotate away from a fully geoeffective position. A return to a more ambient, background-like state is anticipated for 19 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active in varied response to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: Quiet to active conditions are anticipated for the remainder of 17 Nov. Mostly quiet conditions are expected 18-19 Nov as CH HSS influences wane.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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