[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Nov 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Nov 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Regions 2894 (S28W68, Hsx/alpha) and 2896 (S18E52, Hsx/alpha) remained quiet and stable. An active region with a spot rotated into view near N14 over the far northeastern quadrant, but was not numbered yet due to a lack of observatory reports. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a slight chance for C-class flares on 16-18 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach moderate to high levels on 16-18 Nov due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters began the period at nominal levels with solar wind speed near 300km/s. Total field ranged from 3-5 nT while the Bz component was between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive early in the period. An apparent CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS arrived beginning near 15/1500 UTC when total IMF strength gradually increased and peaked at 22 nT by 15/2016 UTC. The Bz component became variable and reached a maximum southward deviation of -17 nT during CIR passage. Solar wind speed increased and reached maximum speeds around 630 km/s. The phi angle varied, but turned predominantly negative shortly after 15/2300 UTC.

Forecast: Influences of an isolated negative polarity CH HSS are expected to continue on 16 Nov and persist through 17 Nov. Waning conditions are expected 18 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.

Forecast: Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 16-17 Nov due to CH HSS influences. 18 Nov is expected to see primarily quiet conditions as CH HSS effects wane.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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