[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Nov 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Nov 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Regions 2894 (S28W55, Hsx/alpha) and 2896 (S18E65, Hsx/alpha) were quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a slight chance for C-class flares on 15-17 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,600 pfu observed at 14/1620 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels on 15 Nov. Geomagnetic activity from CH HSS influence on 16-17 Nov will likely decrease flux values to normal-moderate levels. The greater than 10 proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued at nominal levels with solar wind speed ranging from 291-327 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-5 nT while the Bz component was between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative.

Forecast: Nominal solar wind conditions are anticipated through 15 Nov. Enhancements from a negative polarity CH HSS are likely late on 16 Nov and persisting through 17 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet over 15 Nov, with a chance for isolated unsettled periods. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 16-17 Nov in response to CH HSS influence.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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