[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2021 Nov 15 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2021 Nov 15 0156 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 - 14 November 2021

Solar activity reached moderate levels (R1-Minor) at 09/1702 UTC due to a long duration M2 flare from Region 2891 (N17, L=212, class/area Dki/350 on 29 Oct). Region 2891 had rotated around the west limb at the time of the event, as a result this CME was not Earth-directed. Solar activity was low on 08 and 13 Nov. Solar activity was very low on 10-12, 14 Nov. There were no notable CMEs observed during the reporting period.

The greater then 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit increased from background levels to 2.6 pfu at 09/2125 UTC. This increase was in response to the aforementioned M2 flare from Region 2891. Proton flux values remained below S1 (Minor) levels throughout the reporting period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reach high levels on 08-09 and 13-14 Nov. A peak flux of 3,319 pfu was observed at 08/1850 UTC by the GOES-16 spacecraft. Moderate levels were observed throughout the remainder of the reporting period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached unsettled levels on 08-10 Nov due to residual solar wind effects from the CME that arrived on 04 Nov. Quiet conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the reporting period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 November - 11 December 2021

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flaring throughout the outlook period. There is a chance for moderate levels on 20 Nov - 03 Dec with the return of M-flare producing Region 2891 to the visible disk.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 15-16 Nov with moderate levels anticipated throughout the reminder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 16-17, 28-29 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

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