[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Nov 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Nov 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Both Regions 2894 (S28W43, Hsx/alpha) and 2895 (N22W27, Axx/alpha) continued to exhibit decay over the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a slight chance for C-class flares on 14-16 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,190 pfu observed at 13/1655 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate with a chance of high levels on 14-16 Nov. The greater than 10 proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed ranging from 304-361 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-5 nT while the Bz component was between +3/-4 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative.

Forecast: Nominal solar wind conditions are anticipated through 15 Nov. Enhancements from a negative polarity CH HSS are likely late on 16 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet through 15 Nov, with a chance for isolated unsettled periods. Unsettled to active conditions are likely late on 16 Nov in response to CH HSS onset.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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