[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jul 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jul 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. The DSF mentioned in the previous discussion was analyzed, modeled and determined to be a near-miss on 31 Jul and into 01 Aug. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels 29-31 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels, with a chance for high levels 29-31 Jul in response to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field settled from 14 nT to an average of 5 nT, the Bz component ranged from -6 nT to 4 nT, and wind speeds increased early in the period to ~530 km/s. Phi was variable in the first half of the period, but has since been predominantly in the positive solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to remain elevated due to CH HSS influences on 29 Jul, however, elevated solar wind speed will likely begin decreasing later in the day. Disturbed and variable enhancements in the solar wind field are likely on 30-31 Jul due to waning CH HSS effects and possible influences from a nearby passing transient on 31 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled under CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to react with primarily quiet to unsettled conditions on 29 Jul in response to continuing CH HSS effects. Mainly quiet to isolated unsettled conditions are anticipated on 30-31 Jul due to waning CH HSS effects and possible disturbances related to a nearby passing transient.

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