[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jul 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jul 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low as the visible solar disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected to continue 30 Jul-1 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate, with a chance for high levels, 30 Jul-1 Aug due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained indicative of CH HSS influences. Total IMF strength averaged 3-6 nT with primarily weak southward deviations of the Bz component. Solar wind speed ranged mainly ~435-535 km/s and the phi angle was predominantly in the positive solar sector.

Forecast: Elevated solar wind speed is expected to continue, but slowly wane through 30 Jul as influences of a positive polarity CH HSS weaken, while possible weak connections with an isolated, negative polarity CH HSS could occur. Enhancements in solar wind conditions are anticipated again 31 Jul and 1 Aug due to waning negative polarity CH HSS effects, followed by possible connection to a southward extension of the north polar, positive polarity CH HSS. Additionally, several CMEs (from 25, 27, and 28 Jul) are anticipated to pass close to Earth 30-31 Jul and 1 Aug. While models for these transients indicated mostly close proximity or weak flanking influences, it is probable these nearby passing transients could cause weak disturbances in the solar wind field all three days.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 30-31 Jul, and quiet to active on 1 Aug. These varying responses are anticipated reactions to CH HSS effects and possible additional influences from the close proximity of passing transients.

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