[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jul 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jul 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with two unremarkable spot groups present on the visible disk. At around 28/1030 UTC, a filament appears to be lifting from near 25NW00 in GOES-16 SUVI 304A. Once LASCO imagery becomes available we will have more details. As of the writing of this discussion, no Earth directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels 28-30 Jul, with a slight chance for C-class flares on 28 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 28-30 Jul, with a chance for high levels 29-30 Jul due to any CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of ambient background conditions, proximity to the HCS, and possible CH influences. Total IMF strength ranged primarily from 2-6 nT and the Bz component underwent only weak deviations. Around 27/2100 UTC, the IMF strengthened and to near 15 nT. The Bz component had deflections periodically to near -10 nT. Solar wind speed varied between mostly 300-500 km/s. Phi angle varied between sectors, but was predominantly oriented in a positive orientation through the period.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are anticipated to become further disturbed and enhanced due to positive polarity CH HSS influences 28-29 Jul. Any CH HSS influences are expected to diminish on 30 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet to unsettled, with active conditions likely on 28 Jul in response to CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 29 Jul as CH HSS influences wane. A return to mainly quiet conditions is expected on 30 Jul.

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