[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jul 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jul 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2846 (N24W26, Bxo/beta) decayed to plage and Region 2847 (S28W06, Axx/alpha) remained stable. A short filament near S20E25 was visible lifting from GOES SUVI A195 loop just before 27/0400 UTC. LASCO C2 displays a faint, narrow CME off the E limb shortly after. With less than 120 degrees of limb coverage and not eclipsing either pole, the CME is unlikely to have a geoeffective trajectory. Once more images become available, more analysis will occur. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low 27-29 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 27-29 Jul, with a chance for high levels on 29 Jul due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were ambient background quiet. Total IMF strength was primarily 3-6 nT, while the Bz component underwent only weak deviations. Solar wind speed ranged mainly from 300-320 km/s. The phi angle was variable between sectors.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are anticipated to become mildly disturbed on 27 Jul due to HCS proximity. Connection to a positive polarity CH HSS 28-29 Jul will likely cause an increase in solar wind speed and an enhancement in the IMF.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 27 Jul in varying response to anticipated mildly disturbed solar wind conditions. Quiet to unsettled conditions, with a likely isolated active period, are expected on 28 Jul due to CH HSS effects. A return to mostly quiet to unsettled conditions is expected 29 Jul.

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