[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jul 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jul 22 1230 UTC.

Solar activity was low due to a pair of C1 flares. Out of the six numbered regions only 2845 (S16W69, Cro/beta) and 2849 (S18E67, Axx/alpha) were active by producing the aforementioned C-class flares. The C1.3 flare at 21/2005 UTC by region 2845 produced a CME visible and LASCO coronagraph imagery off the west limb. Analysis and subsequent model run have determined this event to be a miss.

The CME associated with the DSF on 20 Jul was analyzed further and modeled. Initial results suggest a possible glancing blow later on 23 Jul.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for occasional C-class flares, and a slight chance for isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 22-23 Jul as regions 2842 and 2845 reach and rotate off the west limb. Activity is anticipated to be low with a chance for isolated C-class flares 24 Jul

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate 22-24 Jul, with a chance of high levels on 22 Jul due to minor CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of weak, positive polarity CH HSS influences. Wind speeds gradually decreased over the course of the period from ~525 km/s to ~420 km/s by periods end. Total field and the Bz component were benign for a majority of the period. However, near 22/0330 total field increased to 6-7 nt, and Bz began a long, sustained, southward deflection of -5 to -7 nT. Phi was predominantly in the positive (away) solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are anticipated to continue with weak, waning CH HSS influences over 22 Jul. Later on 23 Jul, influences from the 20 Jul CME are anticipated to arrive as a minor glancing blow at Earth, causing escalations in speed and an enhanced IMF. Any transient influences are likely to continue into 24 Jul, but weaken as CME effects wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet, with an isolated active period, as minor CH HSS effects continued.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for an isolated active period, over the remainder of 22 Jul. Geomagnetic responses are likely to increase later on 23 Jul in reaction to a likely, glancing blow CME arrival and active to G1 (Minor) storm conditions are probable. Any CME effects will likely continue into early 24 Jul, but with diminishing geomagnetic responses of unsettled to active conditions.

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