[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jul 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jul 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. A C1.1 flare occurred at 20/2337 UTC and appears to be from a region around the east limb. Region 2842 (N26W60, Dao/beta-gamma) grew in area, but the region was inactive as it approaches the western limb. Newly numbered region 2848 (N19E17, Bxo/beta) formed this period, but was quiet. All other NOAA SWPC regions were unremarkable.

A ~5 degree filament centered at approximately N26E65 erupted from the visible disk from 20/1600-1630 UTC. The DSF was associated with a B5-level enhancement at 20/1633 UTC. STEREO-A imagery, as it became available, revealed a partial, northern favoring halo. Therefor, an Earth-directed component is not anticipated at this time.

No other potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain low, with a chance for C-class flares 21-23 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux retained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels, with a chance for high flux 21-23 Jul due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of elevated solar wind speed and enhanced IMF, likely due to CH HSS and HCS proximity influences. Total IMF strength was primarily 5-7 nT and the Bz component varied, with a few prolonged periods of southward direction reaching -5 nT. Solar wind speed increased and reached values over 500 km/s as the period progressed. The phi angle oscillated between solar sectors before becoming predominantly positive ~21/0105 UTC.

Forecast: Elevated parameters are expected to continue over the course of 21 Jul before returning to a more ambient-like state on 22 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled in varied response to the disturbed and enhanced solar wind field.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to react with quiet to unsettled conditions on 21 Jul due to CH HSS effects. Predominantly quiet conditions are expected on 22 Jul as any CH HSS influences diminish.

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