[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jul 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jul 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to a pair of C1 flares from just beyond the SE limb. The C1 flare at 19/1907 UTC was associated with a limb event CME as observed in other GOES SUVI imagery, and is not anticipated to be Earth-directed. Region 2842 (N24W49, Cro/beta) saw consolidation in its leading spots and decay of penumbra in its intermediate. Region 2845 (S15W41, Axx/alpha) decayed further and was inactive. New NOAA/SWPC Region 2846 (N19E68, Dro/beta) was assigned to a spot just inside the NE limb, however, foreshortening prevented a better analysis at this time.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with an increasing chance of C-class flares 20-22 Jul. The AR just beyond the SE limb that produced the C1 flare, is anticipated to rotate onto or near the Earth-facing east limb on 20 Jul at which time, better analysis of flare probabilities may be determined.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 20-22 Jul, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a mildly enhanced IMF and solar wind speed state. Total IMF strength increased and reached a maximum value of 7 nT, while the Bz component was variable with a few prolonged periods of weak southward direction of up to -6 nT. Solar wind speed gradually increased over the period from near 400km/s to ~480 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly positive, but began to undergo excursions into a negative solar sector late in the period.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are anticipated to return to a more ambient-background like state on 20 Jul. 21-22 Jul may see mildly enhanced and disturbed conditions due to influences associated with proximity to a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled in varied response to the the mildly enhanced and disturbed solar wind field.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected 20-22 Jul.

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