[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jul 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jul 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2841 (N23, L=237) decayed to plage. Region 2842 (N25E32, Hsx/alpha) was quiet and stable. New Region 2843 (S17W38, Bxo/beta) developed as a simple bipolar group and produced a B2 x-ray event observed at 13/1835 UTC.

An eruptive prominence was observed in GOES-16 SUVI imagery in the southwest quadrant starting around 13/1500 UTC. A CME was confirmed in LASCO C2 imagery. However, given the location of the eruption, it is not considered to be Earth-directed.

A second CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 13/1912 UTC. This full-halo CME was corroborated with STEREO-A COR2 imagery as a back-side event, and therefore not Earth-directed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 14-16 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to moderate to high levels over the next three days (14-16 Jul) due to CH HSS influence.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at mostly nominal levels through about 14/0900 UTC. Winds speeds averaged about 325 km/s, total field peaked at 5 nT while the Bz component varied weakly between +/-3 nT. After 14/0900 UTC, an uptick in wind speeds to near 375 km/s was observed. Total field reached 12 nt and the Bz component reached a maximum southward extent of -7 nT. The phi angle was variable through about 14/0200 UTC when a switch to a predominately negative orientation was observed.

Forecast: Given the null effects thus far, it is thought the bulk of the HSS has passed south of Earth. Although some influence is still possible in the next 12-24 hours.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly unsettled levels, with an isolated active interval, on 14 Jul if some portion of this broad HSS becomes geoeffective. Otherwise mostly quiet conditions are anticipated the next three days (14-16 Jul).

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation