[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jul 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jul 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Both Regions 2842 (N24E19, Hsx/alpha) and 2843 (S17W51, Axx/alpha) were quiet and stable. Surging and B-class x-ray activity was observed on the E limb near S35. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 15-17 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at mostly moderate levels over the next three days (15-17 Jun). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters began the period enhanced as a CIR signature, in advance of a negative polarity CH HSS, became evident. Total field peaked at 13 nT at 14/1739 UTC while the Bz component varied between +6 to -11nT. Wind speeds gradually increased through the period from initial speeds of near 375 km/s to peak speeds of about 450 km/s at 15/0600 UTC. The phi angle was in a predominately negative solar sector.

Forecast: An enhanced solar wind environment is expected to persist through 15 Jul into 16 Jul before transitioning to more background conditions on the 17th.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the remainder of 15 Jul with quiet to unsettled levels on 16 Jul. 17 Jul is expected to be at mostly quiet levels.

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