[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jul 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jul 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2841 (S18E10, Axx/alpha) was quiet and stable. Region 2842 (N24E45, Hsx/alpha) managed to produce a B1 flare, but was otherwise inactive.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 13-15 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to moderate to high levels over the next three days (13-15 Jul) due to CH HSS influence.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of the initial arrival of the forecasted negative polarity CH HSS. While the IMF and density have increased, wind speed has yet to respond with speeds only reaching about 360 km/s. Total field peaked around 10 nT and Bz underwent a few, short, southward deviations exceeding to -7 nT. After about 13/1725 UTC, phi was in a steady negative orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced through 15 Jul due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 13-14 Jul with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 13 Jul due to CH HSS effects.

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