[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jul 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jul 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2841 S17E22, Axx/alpha) decayed to a single spot while Region 2842 (N25E58, Hsx/alpha) was quiet and stable.

Two CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 imagery late in the period. The first was observed off the NE limb at 12/0648 UTC, while the second was observed off the W limb at 12/0724 UTC. Analysis of any potential Earth impact will be conducted as more imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 12-14 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 12 Jul. Moderate to high levels are likely on 13-14 Jul due to CH HSS influence.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 350 km/s to near 300 km/s through the period. Total field ranged from 0-5 nT while the Bz component varied between +4/-3 nT. Phi angle was mostly oriented in a positive sector.

Forecast: CH HSS onset is expected early on 12 Jul. Solar wind parameters are expected to continued to be enhanced through 14 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 12-14 Jul with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 13 Jul due to CH HSS effects.

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