[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jul 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jul 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2835 (S18, L=054) produced multiple C-class flares prior to rotating around the west limb. Regions 2837 (N17, L=009) and 2840 (N27, L=035) decayed to plage and were inactive. Region 2839 (N19E03, Bxo/beta) was absent of significant flaring and displayed an overall trend of decay. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for an M-class flare, (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) radio blackout, on 07 Jul from departed Region 2835. Region 2835 will rotate further beyond the SW limb on 08 Jul and very low solar activity is expected with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance of M-class flares. Very low solar activity with a chance for C-class activity is expected on 09 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels on 07-09 Jul, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected near background conditions. Wind speed ranged between 320-400 km/s. Total field peaked at 8 nT. Bz dropped as low as -7 nT. Phi was predominately negative.

Forecast: Background conditions are anticipated until the arrival of an isolated, positive polarity CH HSS on day three (09 Jul).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated period of unsettled conditions.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 07-08 Jul. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 09 Jul due to CIR/CH HSS effects.

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