[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jul 06 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jul 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2835 (S18W75, Cko/beta) produced a C1 flare at 05/1824 UTC, exhibited slight decay in the trailer and approached the western limb. A subsequent C1/Sf flare was observed at 05/1843 UTC from old Region 2836 (S26, L=063) that had decayed to plage as it transited the western limb. Region 2837 (N17W31, Axx/alpha) was inactive and nearly decayed to plage. Region 2839 (N19E16, Cao/beta) appeared to be in slight decay as the leader spots began to consolidate and the trailer spots started to fade. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with C-class flares likely, and a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 06-08 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels on 06-08 Jul.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected near background conditions. Wind speed was at or below 350 km/s. Total field peaked at 8 nT. Bz dropped as low as -8 nT. Phi was variable.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become weakly enhanced later on 06 Jul through midday on 07 Jul due to potential negative polarity CH HSS influence. A return to nominal solar wind conditions is expected late on 07 Jul through 8 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled levels through 06 Jul, with a chance for isolated active periods, as a negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on late 07 Jul, continuing through 8 Jul.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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