[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jul 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jul 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels due to an C1/Sf flare observed at 04/1813 UTC from Region 2839 (N19E30, Cao/beta). Growth, in both area and spot count, was observed from the region over the period. Slight decay was observed in the trailing spots of Region 2835 (S19W64, Cko/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

At about 04/2333 UTC, a filament eruption was observed in the NE quadrant. A N-S oriented, 9 degree long filament erupted along a channel centered near N21E35. No CME signature was observed in very limited coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2: Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) on 05-07 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels on 05-07 Jul.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels through the period. A SSBC from a positive to a negative orientation, was observed at about 05/0030 UTC. Solar wind speeds varied between about 305-355 km/s, total field ranged from 1-7 nT and the Bz component varied between +7 to -2 nT.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become weakly enhanced later on 05 Jul through 06 Jul due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. A return to nominal solar wind conditions is expected on 07 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled levels on 05-06 Jul, with a chance for isolated active periods, as a negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 07 Jul.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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