[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2021 Jul 05 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2021 Jul 05 0346 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 June - 04 July 2021

Solar activity ranged from very low to high levels. Region 2838 (N24W88, class/area Cro/030 on 03 Jul) rapidly emerged near the NW limb on 03 Jul. It produced the strongest event of the period, an impulsive X1/Sn flare (R3 - Strong) at 03/1429 UTC. Associated with the event was a Type II radio sweep (357 km/s) along with low-level radio bursts across several different frequencies. Subsequent coronagraph imagery from SOHO LASCO/C2 showed several different westward CME signatures. Analysis determined all to be oriented away from the Sun-Earth line. The region also produced an M2/Sf flare (R1 - Minor) at 03/0717 UTC, an M1/Sf flare (R1) at 03/1702 UTC and a final M1/Sf flare (R1) at 04/0509 UTC as the region rotated behind the NW limb.

The largest region on the visible disk was Region 2835 (S18W16, class/area Ekc/770 on 01 Jul). The largest flare it produced during the reporting period was a C3 at 30/1815 UTC. The growth of Region 2835 peaked on 01 Jul and has been in gradual decay in the days since. The three remaining numbered active regions were relatively simple and stable or in decay.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the summary period.

Geomagnetic field activity varied from quiet to active levels. Late on 30 Jun, a relatively gradual increase in solar wind parameters was observed which was likely from transient influence of a CME that left the Sun on 27 Jun. Solar wind speeds increased from the mid 300 km/s to a peak of just over 500 km/s. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) increased to a brief peak of 13 nt early on 01 Jul. Bz reached a maximum southward flux of -9 nT. The following geomagnetic field response was mostly unsettled to active through the later part of 30 Jun. A decline in Bt early on 01 Jul resulted in quiet conditions despite wind speeds being elevated through 03 Jul. The remainder of the summary period was quiet.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 July - 31 July 2021

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low over the outlook period. There is potential for Region 2838 (N24, L=100), which produced an X1/Sn flare at 03/1429 UTC as it rotated around the NW limb, to increase flare probabilities after 16 Jul if it maintains around the farside and rotates back onto the visible disk.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels are likely on 12-14 Jul and 20-23 Jul in response to CH HSS activity. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels. Active levels are likely on 10 Jul and 18-19 Jul; unsettled levels are likely on 05-06 Jul, 11 Jul and 20 Jul. All elevated levels on geomagnetic activity are in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at quiet levels.

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