[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jul 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jul 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached high levels today as Region 2838 (N24, L=099) an X1/Sn (R3-Strong) flare at 03/1429 UTC. Associated with this event was weak, lower frequency radio emissions including a Type II sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 357 km/s. The region also produced a pair of M1/Sf (R1-Minor) flares at 03/1703 UTC and 04/0509 UTC, respectively. Each of the events produced CMEs off the W limb that are no expected to affect Earth. The region has completely rotated around the W limb and is no longer visible.

Region 2835 (S18W50, Dkc/beta) remained quiet and stable. Region 2836 (S26, L=062) decayed to plage and Region 2837 (N17W06, Cro/beta) developed a few more spots, but remained quiet. New Region 2839 (N19E43, Cro/beta) rapidly developed this period and was responsible for a C1 x-ray event at 04/0757 UTC.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1:Minor) with a chance for high levels (R2-R3:Moderate-Strong) for the remainder of 04 Jul due to continued activity from Region 2838. Activity is expected to slowly decrease to a slight chance for moderate levels on 05-06 Jul as Region 2838 rotates around the NW limb and large Region 2835 remains a threat.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

A minor enhancement of the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was observed attributable to the X1 flare. However, the proton flux levels only increased to 0.9 pfu, far below the 10 pfu (S1-Minor) threshold.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 04-06 Jul.

There is a chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm on 04 Jul due to continued significant flare potential from Region 2838.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were in decline over the period. Solar wind speed decreased through the period from approximately 460 km/s to near 340 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-5 nT while the Bz component was between +/-2 nT. Phi angle rotated from a negative sector to a positive sector at 03/1508 UTC and rotated back negative at about 04/0557 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to become weakly enhanced through the period due to the potential for a glancing blow from the 29 Jun CME on 04 Jul followed by CH HSS onset on 05 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 04-06 Jul due to possible weak CME influence followed by CH HSS activity.

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