[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jul 03 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jul 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels (R1-Minor). New Region 2838 (N24W81, Dao/beta) produced an impulsive M2/Sf flare observed at 03/0717 UTC. The region also produced a C5/Sf flare at 03/0231 UTC and a C1/Sf flare at 03/0508 UTC. The largest region on the disk, Region 2835 (S18W36, Dkc/beta-gamma) indicated slight increase in area and spot count, but was quiet. Both Regions 2836 (S25W43, Axx/alpha) and 2837 (N17E08, Bxo/beta) were quiet and stable.

Other activity included an eruptive prominence observed in GOES SUVI 304 imagery off the NW limb beginning at about 02/1401 UTC. An associated CME was observed in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 02/1536 UTC. Initial analysis, with limited coronagraph imagery, and subsequent model output suggests a miss to the west of Earths trajectory. However, further analysis will be conducted as additional imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, on 03-04 Jul, decreasing to a slight chance on 05 Jul. This is due to the magnetic complexity of Region 2835 and recent activity from Region 2838.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 03-05 Jul, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced over the period. Solar wind speed ranged from 423-510 km/s while the total field was between 3-7 nT. Phi indicated SSBC, from positive to negative, at 02/1418 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over the period due to a potential glancing blow from the 29 Jun CME on 03-04 Jul as well as a weak CH HSS on 05 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Unsettled, with possible active conditions, are expected on 03 Jul due to a potential glancing blow from the 29 Jun CME. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to continue through 04-05 Jul due to persistent CME influence followed by the arrival of a CH HSS on 05 Jul.

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