[Propagation+Space Weather] The W1AW Weekly Propagation Report - 2021 Jul 02 23:49 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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The following is the weekly propagation bulletin from W1AW / ARRL (posting on 20210702 23:49 UTC):

QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 27 ARLP027 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA July 2, 2021 To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP027 ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity is strong! Average daily sunspot number rose from 14 to 34.7, and average daily solar flux increased from 79.3 to 86.9. Both figures represent a dramatic increase in solar activity. These averages are for the recent seven day period, Thursday through Wednesday, and the sunspot number on Thursday was 56, which is above the average of 34.7, always a good sign.

Planetary A index went from 5.3 to 6.1, while average daily middle latitude A index was at 6.1, the same as last week.

Predicted solar flux is 94 on July 2 to 6, 90 on July 7 and 8, 85 on July 9 to 11, 82 on July 12 to 14, 80 on July 15 to 18, 82 on July 19, 85 on July 20 to 24, 88 on July 25, 90 on July 26 to 28, 92 on July 29 through August 1, 90 on August 2, and 85 on August 3 to 7.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 12, 8, 10 and 8 on July 2 to 6, 5 on July 7 and 8, 8 on July 9 and 10, then 5, 15 and 12 on July 11 to 13, 5 on July 14 to 20, 8 on July 21, 5 on July 22 to 26, 10 on July 27, 5 on July 28 to 30, 12 on July 31, 5 on August 1 to 4, then 8 on August 5 and 6, and 5, 15 and 12 on August 7 to 9.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 2 to 29, 2021 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH. 'Geomagnetic field will be Quiet on: July 16 and 17, 24 and 25 Quiet to unsettled on: July 2 and 3, 6 and 7, 9 to 11, 18, 23, 29 Quiet to active on: July 4 and 5, 12, 14 and 15, (19 to 22,) 26 Qnsettled to active: July (8,) 13, 27 and 28 Active to disturbed: nothing forecast

Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.'

Jon Jones, N0JK reports from Kansas EM28:

'A sporadic-E opening to Europe on 50 MHz on July 1 to the Heartland (Midwest USA) the afternoon of July 1. I decoded many Europeans. F6EXV in with a good signal. But difficult getting takers. Finally worked G4PLZ at 1933z. He was my only PSK flag in Europe.

Even area ops who run KW and big Yagis were having trouble raising Europe, but saw one work F6EXV and I think EI4DQ. K0TPP EM48 to the east having better luck with Europe.

Here in northeast Kansas decoded EA, EI, F, G, and PA2M. EI3KD, EI4DQ had good signals.'

K4ZOT reported on June 28 from EM73 near Atlanta:

'I thought you might be interested in this 6M DX which totally caught me by surprise today.

I have been a 6M enthusiast since I received my license in 1964 when I operated a Layette HA-460 6M 10W transceiver. In all this time I have never worked or heard an African 6M station. I have worked JA several times on 6M and other Pacific locations, but never Africa. Much to my total surprise today, June 28, at 1926 UTC, 5T5PA (Mauritania) suddenly popped on the FT8 JTALert 'Callsigns' screen with an audio alert of new DX. Again, to my utter amazement I worked him on the first call, a distance of 4241 miles. Not the longest 6M DX by far, but surprising from Africa at least from this location.

I believe he worked one or two other stations and then he was gone. Perhaps only on for 2-3 minutes. A wonderful 6M DX from my station using a 5 element Yagi at only 32 feet.

6M is indeed the 'Magic Band' as it has been for me for 55 years of operation. Best of all - Johannes confirmed the contact in LOTW just a few minutes after we made contact. Thank you Johannes - a true Ham in the best spirit of the hobby.'

KA3JAW reported:

'On Thursday, July 1, 2021 at 10:15 am EDT, FM-DXer Bryce Foster in Mashpee, Massachusetts received 87.7 RTP Antena-3 Pico da Barrosa, Azores via 2x-Es. Station running 30 kW by vertical polarization. Distance 2379 air miles. Reception lasted up to 35 minutes with audio identification along with a stream match. This is the first time I heard of a US to Azores link on the FM broadcast band.

W9NY reported on June 28:

'The propagation on 20 meters between my Dune Acres, Indiana station and much of Europe and Asiatic Russia beginning last night (6/27/21) at 11 pm and continuing for about 2 hours was absolutely amazing. It reminded me of 10 meters at the peak of prior sunspot cycles.

Around 14.208 I called CQ and worked one station after another, from Finland in the North to Corsica and Greece in the South and all across Russia to several points in Siberia. Many of the signal reports given and received were 20 to 30 DB over S9. A couple nearly pinned the needle on my Icom 7610. In fact, I worked many stations running 100 watts to simple antennas like a dipole or vertical that were coming in over S9 and a few stations that were QRP but still producing S5 to S7 signals. I have not heard an opening like that in many years and it was certainly a lot of fun. I probably should have turned on my QRP rig but I never got around to it!

Perhaps a harbinger of things to come!

I did check out 17, 15, 12, 10 and 6, which were all quiet.

And today there was a fair amount of activity on 10 meters and 6 meters.'

Frank, W3LPL wrote:

'Propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. There is a slight possibility that isolated below normal intervals may briefly degrade propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions from midday Saturday through early Sunday. We are in the quiet geomagnetic activity season, only about half as many geomagnetically disturbed days occur in June and July compared to the more geomagnetically active equinox seasons.

Sporadic-E propagation occurs every day during June and July at mid-latitudes in the northern hemisphere making long distance propagation up to 15,000 km sporadically available in the 17, 15, 12, 10 and 6 meter bands from sunrise through midnight and occasionally somewhat later.

The solar flux is likely to be at least 94 through Sunday. Solar active region 2835 has grown to 770 micro-hemispheres (2.3 billion square kilometers, four times the surface area of the Earth), almost as large as the active region that significantly improved HF propagation during late November 2020. Region 2835 is significantly improving HF propagation on 30 and 20 meters during late afternoon, nighttime and early morning hours and 17 and 15 meter propagation during the day through early evening. Active regions 2836 and 2837 are slowly and quietly decaying and are having no effect on HF propagation.

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be seasonably normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation to south Asia is likely to be mostly normal at about 0015 UTC through Sunday. 40 meter short path propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0930 UTC is likely to be mostly normal with a slight possibility of isolated below normal intervals on Saturday.

30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a slight possibility of isolated below normal intervals late Saturday. 30 meter propagation is always significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because of E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.

30 meter night time long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is likely to improve due to increased ionizing solar radiation in the northern high latitude regions caused by increased sunspot activity, higher solar elevation angles and much shorter nights with no source of ionizing solar radiation.

20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a slight possibility of isolated below normal intervals late Saturday.

20 meter northern transpolar propagation within a few hours of sunrise and sunset is improving with increased solar ionizing radiation on the northern polar region caused by increased sunspot activity and high solar elevation angles 24 hours per day during the midnight sun season. 20 meter long distance propagation is significantly degraded from mid-morning through late afternoon at low and mid-latitudes in the northern hemisphere by F1 region midday blanketing of low angle propagation during the summer.

20 meter late afternoon, nighttime and early morning long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is likely to improve due to increased ionizing solar radiation in the northern high latitude regions caused by increasing sunspot activity, higher solar elevation angles and much shorter nights with no source of ionizing solar radiation.

17 and 15 meter daytime long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is likely to improve due to increased ionizing solar radiation in the northern high latitude regions caused by increasing sunspot activity, high solar elevation angles and long days.

17, 15, 12, 10 and 6 meter sporadic-E propagation up to 15,000 km is likely to be sporadically available from sunrise through midnight and occasionally later through late July.

Geomagnetic disturbances caused by coronal hole high speed stream effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less frequent through at least late 2021. The southward oriented (-Bz) component of the IMF plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream.

More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed fast CME.

There is a slight possibility that Earth-directed effects of a weak CME and continuing weak coronal hole high speed stream effects may slightly to moderately enhance IMF field strength, solar wind speed near Earth and geomagnetic activity. If the weak CME is geo-effective it may slightly degrade HF propagation through the auroral ovals from midday Saturday through early Sunday. Geomagnetic storms are not likely through Sunday. There is a slight possibility of an M-class solar flare from Friday through Sunday, but its possible HF propagation effects are likely to be brief and minor.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is now 77 minutes later and daylength is 163 minutes longer than it was on the March 20th. Daylength and solar elevation angle in the northern polar region are slowly declining through mid-July due to gradually waning summer solstice effects.'

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for June 24 through 30, 2021 were 11, 25, 16, 32, 50, 56, and 53, with a mean of 34.7. 10.7 cm flux was 80.6, 83.4, 82.4, 87, 88.6, 92.5, and 94.1, with a mean of 86.9.. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 7, 4, 4, 4, 5, and 14, with a mean of 6.1. Middle latitude A index was 6, 8, 5, 4, 4, 5, and 11, with a mean of 6.1.

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