[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jul 02 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jul 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2835 (S18W23, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced several B-class flares during the reporting period. Region 2836 (S26W29, Hsx/alpha) was stable and quiet. Region 2837 (N17E22, Cro/beta) displayed spot development and provided several B-class flares towards the end of the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with C-class flares likely and a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 02-04 Jul due to the magnetic complexity of Region 2835.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 02-04 Jul, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment reflected slightly enhanced conditions as transient effects persisted. Solar wind began the period near 500 km/s and ended at approximately 430 km/s. Total field peaked at 9 nT. Bz dropped as low as -4 nT. Phi was primarily positive.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced throughout the forecast period (02-04 Jul) as effects from the transient mentioned in the previous discussion persists, combined with the anticipated arrival of the 29 June CME on day one.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 02-04 Jul due to persistent and anticipated CME activity.

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